Why Union Pacific stock moves
Union Pacific fell after merger and speech-release news.
Written after the close on ·
Updated 02:00 with news that came after the close
Why today
16,413 news analyzed todayUnion Pacific fell after merger and speech-release news.
The move was clearly apart from the market, and no single company event from the last session is confirmed as its cause.
Over the last five trading days, Union Pacific fell sharply, moving more than both the S&P 500 and its sector.
The drop is about twice a normal five-day move for the stock, a big move for it.
Likely drivers are news about the proposed Norfolk Southern merger and the regulator's order to release CEO Jim Vena's speech.
Today's move of −2.61% was 3.7 times a normal day's 0.7%. S&P 500 moved +0.31% on the same day.
Union Pacific −2.61%S&P 500 +0.31%Against the market
What analysts expect, and how often they have been right
Analysts’ estimates for Union Pacific.
Union Pacific earned more than expected in 6 out of 8 reports.
For comparison, about 82% of reports from US companies beat the estimate in the last three years.
The share moved in the same direction as the earnings surprise in 5 out of 8 reports with a measured move, against about 55% of reports from US companies.
Ratings
Price targets
Latest price $290.16
Earnings against expectations, and the share’s reaction
Expected EPSAbove estimateBelow estimateAs expected$
Next reported quarter: expected earnings per share of $3.31 (January 26). For the current fiscal year, expected earnings per share changed from $13.05 three months ago to $13.17 now. 2026 estimate: $13.17. 2027 estimate: $14.39.
Has the share price followed the business?
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 1 out of 3 years. Across US companies, that happens in about 65% of years. In 2025, the price changed +1% and earnings per share +8%.
Revenue, profit and market cap
RevenueProfitMarket capHatched bars: analysts’ estimates.$B
Assets, liabilities and market cap
AssetsLiabilitiesMarket cap$B
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 1 out of 3 years.Market cap (Now): $172.4BRevenue 2025: $24.5B
What the key figures say about Union Pacific
The figures connect what Union Pacific earns with what investors pay.
The line shows the share price in the same year, on its own scale. Hatched bars: analysts’ estimates.
Profit divided by the number of shares. Each share represents this much of the earnings.
2022–2025: $10.45–$11.98. Peers: CSX $1.92, Norfolk Southern $11.93, Airbus 7.80 EUR. 2026 estimate: $13.17 ($12.90–$13.36). 2027 estimate: $14.39 ($13.35–$15.00).
What the company sold during the year.
2022–2025: $24.1B–$24.9B. Peers: CSX $14.9B, Norfolk Southern $13.0B, Airbus 76.6 bn EUR. 2026 estimate: $27.4B ($26.9B–$27.6B). 2027 estimate: $29.0B ($28.0B–$30.3B).
The percentage of revenue left after the costs of running the business.
2022–2025: 37.7%–40.2%. Peers: CSX 36.6%, Norfolk Southern 35.8%, Airbus 8.1%.
Profit as a percentage of shareholders’ money in the company.
2022–2025: 38.7%–57.5%. Peers: CSX 26.4%, Norfolk Southern 16.8%, Airbus 23.5%.
The price investors pay for each unit of annual earnings per share. Not shown for a loss.
2022–2025: 18.5–23.5. Peers: CSX 25.6, Norfolk Southern 26.8, Airbus 25.2. 2026 estimate: 22.0. 2027 estimate: 20.2.
What investors pay for each unit the company sells.
2022–2025: 5.10–6.21. Peers: CSX 6.09, Norfolk Southern 5.54, Airbus 2.02. 2026 estimate: 6.29. 2027 estimate: 5.95.
Money paid to shareholders per share, summed by calendar year.
2017–2025: $2.48–$5.44.
The ordinary yearly dividend as a percentage of the share price.
2022–2025: 2.1%–2.5%. Peers: CSX 1.1%, Norfolk Southern 1.7%, Airbus 1.6%.
Net debt divided by operating earnings before depreciation and amortisation.
2022–2025: 2.42–2.78. Peers: CSX 2.50, Norfolk Southern 2.68, Airbus 0.21.
More key figures
Market cap divided by shareholders’ equity, what remains after liabilities.
2022–2025: 7.43–10.43. Peers: CSX 6.29, Norfolk Southern 4.30, Airbus 5.80.
Market cap plus net debt, divided by operating earnings. This includes debt.
2022–2025: 15.5–19.1.
Cash left after investments, divided by the number of shares.
2022–2025: $7.83–$9.75. Peers: CSX $1.73, Norfolk Southern $7.33, Airbus 4.77 EUR.
The percentage of assets financed by shareholders’ equity.
2022–2025: 18.6%–26.5%.
The dividend explained
A dividend is money paid to shareholders. Union Pacific paid $5.56 per share in the twelve months through November 6, 2026.
On the ex-dividend day, August 31, 2026, Union Pacific traded without the right to the $1.42 dividend. The price went from $307.41 to $300.67; including the dividend, the day's change was −1.7%. Entitlement passes from the company to shareholders on the ex-day; payment comes later.
2017: $2.482018: $3.062019: $3.702020: $3.882021: $4.292022: $5.082023: $5.202024: $5.282025: $5.442026 so far: $4.18
What followed similar falls?
Including reinvested dividends, Union Pacific fell 4.6% over the latest five trading days. Since November 7, 2016, falls at least this large were followed by a higher value 21 trading days later in 19 out of 37 non-overlapping periods. The median was +0.9%, against +1.1% for an ordinary 21-day period, which ended higher 57 times in 100.
Such a fall has not said much about the next month.
+0.9% · 19/37
What to watch next, and why
The earnings report shows how Union Pacific's revenue and profit have changed.
- Earnings report
The earnings report shows how Union Pacific's revenue and profit have changed.
Add to calendar
Earnings report
Next report: · Add to calendar · Google Calendar
On its last 15 report days Union Pacific usually moved about 3.5%. On a normal day it moves 0.7%.
+3.55% Why? +4.02% +8.77% +0.72%
$10,000 in Union Pacific bought on November 7, 2016 is worth $39,800 today, with dividends reinvested.
The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
What would $10,000 in Union Pacific be worth today? →
What would $10,000 in Union Pacific be worth today?
$39,800
with dividends reinvested, bought on November 7, 2016. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
The five biggest days of the journey
· −13.0% · the whole market fell 12.0% the same day
· +13.0% · the whole market rose 9.4% the same day
· −13.0% · the whole market fell 7.6% the same day
· −10.5% · the whole market fell 5.2% the same day
· +10.4% · the whole market was unchanged the same day · report day
Earlier days
−3.43% market −4.41% Union Pacific fell very sharply. Read →
Union Pacific fell very sharply.
Union Pacific fell, moving in line with the S&P 500 and its sector.
The market and the Industrials sector both fell very sharply over the same session, so the drop looks largely market-driven.
Company news from the last session also weighed: a Baird downgrade and the regulator's order to make the CEO's rate-hike video public, which added scrutiny to the proposed Norfolk Southern merger.
Over the last five trading days the stock fell slightly, while the S&P 500 fell very sharply, so it held up better than the market.
+1.68% market +1.65% Union Pacific rose sharply. Read →
Union Pacific rose sharply.
Union Pacific rose, in line with the S&P 500, which also rose sharply.
Over the last five trading days the shares rose sharply while the S&P 500 fell slightly.
The stock is near its highest close of the past year.
+0.99% market −0.48% Union Pacific rose clearly, against a falling market. Read →
Union Pacific rose clearly, against a falling market.
Union Pacific rose clearly, while the S&P 500 fell slightly, so it moved against the broader market.
Its sector ETF, a fund tracking Industrials stocks, rose clearly too, so the move was in line with its sector.
No single company news explains the rise with certainty.
The stock is near its highest close of the past year, which suggests strong recent momentum.
+0.69% market −1.77% Union Pacific rose slightly without a company-news explanation. Read →
Union Pacific rose slightly without a company-news explanation.
The move ran against a sharply falling S&P 500 and a falling Industrials sector.
Over the last five trading days, Union Pacific rose sharply and outpaced its sector, which rose clearly.
Recent news around the Norfolk Southern merger, including CPKC's request to end the review, came out after trading closed and may shape the next session.
Union Pacific's next earnings report is due Tuesday 26 January 2027.
+3.80% market −0.56% Union Pacific rose sharply over the week, moving against a slightly weaker S&P 500 and outpacing its Industrials sector. Read →
Union Pacific rose sharply over the week, moving against a slightly weaker S&P 500 and outpacing its Industrials sector.
The most concrete company news in the window was Union Pacific's proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, which drew heavy criticism on Tuesday 27 October when Kansas farm groups and a Missouri commentator opposed it.
The next earnings report is due Tuesday 26 January 2027.
+1.39% market −0.38% Union Pacific rose clearly without a company-news explanation. Read →
Union Pacific rose clearly without a company-news explanation.
Over the same session the S&P 500 fell slightly, so Union Pacific moved against the broader market and in line with its Industrials sector.
Over the last five trading days, Union Pacific rose slightly, a little ahead of the S&P 500 and behind its sector, which rose clearly.
Its shares sit near their highest close of the past year, so the move fits a stock already in strong demand.
Most likely the gain reflects sector-wide buying in industrial stocks rather than any single company event.
+1.40% market +0.71% Union Pacific rose, but without a company-news explanation. Read →
Union Pacific rose, but without a company-news explanation.
Over the same session the S&P 500 rose clearly, so Union Pacific moved more than the market.
Over the last five trading days Union Pacific rose sharply while the S&P 500 and the Industrials sector were roughly flat.
A likely reason for the strong week is investor reaction to its record quarterly results and rising volumes ahead of the Norfolk Southern merger review.
The next earnings report is Tuesday 26 January 2027.
−1.75% market −0.52% Union Pacific fell sharply, with no clear company news from that day explaining it. Read →
Union Pacific fell sharply, with no clear company news from that day explaining it.
It fell more than the S&P 500, which dropped clearly, but moved in line with the Industrials sector, which also fell clearly.
Trading was about twice its usual level, so the decline came on heavy activity.
Over the last five trading days the stock rose slightly while the market and its sector both fell, so the week ran against them.
Most of the company's news came before the session, mainly the strong third-quarter results, in which revenue rose 15 percent.
+1.33% market −0.43% Union Pacific rose slightly over the last five trading days, while the broader market fell slightly. Read →
Union Pacific rose slightly over the last five trading days, while the broader market fell slightly.
The stock was lifted by its strong third-quarter results, with revenue up about 15% on higher volume and pricing, partly offset by fuel costs.
Analysts responded with mostly positive views, such as RBC keeping its outperform rating and lifting its price target.
Next, watch the company's dividend and earnings outlook, with its next earnings report due in late January 2027.
+3.55% market −1.18% Union Pacific surges on record quarter, market falls. Read →
Union Pacific surges on record quarter, market falls.
Union Pacific rose very sharply in the last session, while the S&P 500 fell sharply, so it moved against the market.
Its third-quarter results, released that day, were a record: revenue rose about 15% and per-share earnings were $3.49, roughly in line with expectations.
Higher volumes and pricing outweighed rising fuel costs, which likely explains much of the buying.
Trading was about twice its normal level, and the move was about five times a normal day, so it was a very big move.
+0.09% market +0.53% Union Pacific was flat, with no company news explaining a move. Read →
Union Pacific was flat, with no company news explaining a move.
Over the same day the S&P 500 and the Industrials sector both rose clearly, so Union Pacific lagged them.
Over the last five trading days the stock was roughly unchanged while the market rose slightly.
The move was an ordinary one for the stock.
Earlier news, like the planned merger with Norfolk Southern and the CFO's retirement, is background, not a cause of the session's move.
+1.44% market −1.08% Union Pacific rose sharply, moving against a market that fell sharply and a sector that fell clearly. Read →
Union Pacific rose sharply, moving against a market that fell sharply and a sector that fell clearly.
The clearest company-specific news was a note from Jefferies highlighting volume growth of 6% through week 39 and 3% year to date, which points to rising freight demand, though higher diesel costs weighed on operating margins (the share of revenue left after operating expenses).
Investors likely read that combination as a sign the railroad is holding up better than its peers in a weak tape.
The rise against a falling sector suggests the move was partly stock-specific rather than driven by broad industrial trends.
Learn more · Why do stocks go up and down?