Why Norfolk Southern stock moves
Norfolk Southern fell as Union Pacific merger fight intensified.
Written after the close on ·
Updated 02:00 with news that came after the close
Why today
16,437 news analyzed todayNorfolk Southern fell as Union Pacific merger fight intensified.
Over the last five trading days it fell very sharply, moving more than the market and its sector.
Its trading volume was well above normal, and the S&P 500 rose slightly in the last session while Norfolk Southern moved against it.
The most likely reason is the Union Pacific merger dispute: the Union Pacific CEO's remark about raising rates on opposing shippers, and a regulator order to publish the video, put deal risk in focus.
Today's move of −2.42% was 3.1 times a normal day's 0.8%. S&P 500 moved +0.31% on the same day.
Norfolk Southern −2.42%S&P 500 +0.31%Against the market
What analysts expect, and how often they have been right
Analysts’ estimates for Norfolk Southern.
Norfolk Southern earned more than expected in 7 out of 8 reports.
For comparison, about 82% of reports from US companies beat the estimate in the last three years.
The share moved in the same direction as the earnings surprise in 6 out of 8 reports with a measured move, against about 55% of reports from US companies.
Ratings
Price targets
Latest price $319.94
Earnings against expectations, and the share’s reaction
Expected EPSAbove estimateBelow estimateAs expected$
Next reported quarter: expected earnings per share of $3.28 (January 28). For the current fiscal year, expected earnings per share changed from $12.98 three months ago to $13.03 now. 2026 estimate: $13.03. 2027 estimate: $14.51.
Has the share price followed the business?
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 2 out of 3 years. Across US companies, that happens in about 65% of years. In 2025, the price changed +23% and earnings per share +10%.
Revenue, profit and market cap
RevenueProfitMarket capHatched bars: analysts’ estimates.$B
Assets, liabilities and market cap
AssetsLiabilitiesMarket cap$B
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 2 out of 3 years.Market cap (Now): $71.9BRevenue 2025: $12.2B
What the key figures say about Norfolk Southern
The figures connect what Norfolk Southern earns with what investors pay.
The line shows the share price in the same year, on its own scale. Hatched bars: analysts’ estimates.
Profit divided by the number of shares. Each share represents this much of the earnings.
2022–2025: $8.02–$13.88. Peers: CSX $1.92, Union Pacific $12.82, FedEx $18.55. 2026 estimate: $13.03 ($12.72–$13.23). 2027 estimate: $14.51 ($13.68–$15.39).
What the company sold during the year.
2022–2025: $12.1B–$12.7B. Peers: CSX $14.9B, Union Pacific $26.4B, FedEx $94.7B. 2026 estimate: $13.4B ($13.2B–$13.5B). 2027 estimate: $14.2B ($13.7B–$14.6B).
The percentage of revenue left after the costs of running the business.
2022–2025: 35.6%–40.8%. Peers: CSX 36.6%, Union Pacific 40.1%, FedEx 7.0%.
Profit as a percentage of shareholders’ money in the company.
2022–2025: 14.3%–25.7%. Peers: CSX 26.4%, Union Pacific 38.7%, FedEx 14.8%.
The price investors pay for each unit of annual earnings per share. Not shown for a loss.
2022–2025: 17.8–29.5. Peers: CSX 25.6, Union Pacific 22.6, FedEx 16.6. 2026 estimate: 24.5. 2027 estimate: 22.0.
What investors pay for each unit the company sells.
2022–2025: 4.38–5.32. Peers: CSX 6.09, Union Pacific 6.54, FedEx 0.76. 2026 estimate: 5.34. 2027 estimate: 5.07.
Money paid to shareholders per share, summed by calendar year.
2017–2025: $2.44–$5.40.
The ordinary yearly dividend as a percentage of the share price.
2022–2025: 1.9%–2.3%. Peers: CSX 1.1%, Union Pacific 2.0%, FedEx 1.6%.
Net debt divided by operating earnings before depreciation and amortisation.
2022–2025: 2.50–3.69. Peers: CSX 2.50, Union Pacific 2.11, FedEx 1.91.
More key figures
Market cap divided by shareholders’ equity, what remains after liabilities.
2022–2025: 3.71–4.41. Peers: CSX 6.29, Union Pacific 7.83, FedEx 2.09.
Market cap plus net debt, divided by operating earnings. This includes debt.
2022–2025: 14.8–22.8.
Cash left after investments, divided by the number of shares.
2022–2025: $3.78–$9.97. Peers: CSX $1.73, Union Pacific $11.27, FedEx $21.84.
The percentage of assets financed by shareholders’ equity.
2022–2025: 30.7%–34.4%.
The dividend explained
A dividend is money paid to shareholders. Norfolk Southern paid $5.40 per share in the twelve months through November 6, 2026.
On the ex-dividend day, November 6, 2026, Norfolk Southern traded without the right to the $1.35 dividend. The price went from $329.25 to $319.94; including the dividend, the day's change was −2.4%. Entitlement passes from the company to shareholders on the ex-day; payment comes later.
2017: $2.442018: $3.042019: $3.602020: $3.762021: $4.162022: $4.962023: $5.402024: $5.402025: $5.402026 so far: $5.40
What followed similar falls?
Including reinvested dividends, Norfolk Southern fell 6.2% over the latest five trading days. Since November 7, 2016, falls at least this large were followed by a higher value 21 trading days later in 13 out of 24 non-overlapping periods. The median was +0.9%, against +1.7% for an ordinary 21-day period, which ended higher 58 times in 100.
Such a fall has not said much about the next month.
+0.9% · 13/24
What to watch next, and why
The earnings report shows how Norfolk Southern's revenue and profit have changed.
- Earnings report
The earnings report shows how Norfolk Southern's revenue and profit have changed.
Add to calendar
Earnings report
Next report: · Add to calendar · Google Calendar
On its last 15 report days Norfolk Southern usually moved about 3.0%. On a normal day it moves 0.8%.
+3.09% Why? +5.32% −0.54% +2.00%
$10,000 in Norfolk Southern bought on November 7, 2016 is worth $40,900 today, with dividends reinvested.
The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
What would $10,000 in Norfolk Southern be worth today? →
What would $10,000 in Norfolk Southern be worth today?
$40,900
with dividends reinvested, bought on November 7, 2016. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
The five biggest days of the journey
· +18.0% · the whole market rose 9.4% the same day
· −13.9% · the whole market fell 12.0% the same day
· −11.8% · the whole market fell 9.5% the same day
· −11.5% · the whole market fell 7.6% the same day
· +10.9% · the whole market rose 1.1% the same day · report day
Earlier days
−6.23% market −2.70% Norfolk Southern fell very sharply over the week, a much bigger drop than the S&P 500 and its sector. Read →
Norfolk Southern fell very sharply over the week, a much bigger drop than the S&P 500 and its sector.
The move was about four times a normal five-day stretch and rare in the past year.
Merger news likely weighed on the shares, as the Union Pacific CEO's rate threat against shippers opposing the deal drew scrutiny on Thursday and Friday.
Last session the shares fell sharply while the S&P 500 rose slightly, so the stock moved against the market.
−4.33% market −4.41% Norfolk Southern fell, in line with the market. Read →
Norfolk Southern fell, in line with the market.
The S&P 500 and the Industrials sector also fell very sharply that day, so the drop looks broad rather than company-specific.
The most likely driver is the wider market selloff, partly offset by no clear company event that session.
Over the last five trading days the stock fell sharply, a big move for it, and the market fell very sharply too.
Union Pacific's proposed merger with Norfolk Southern remains the main company story, with fresh regulatory scrutiny of the deal.
−1.37% market +0.30% Norfolk Southern fell sharply without a company-news explanation. Read →
Norfolk Southern fell sharply without a company-news explanation.
The stock moved against both the S&P 500, which rose slightly, and the Industrials sector, which rose clearly.
Over the last five trading days the stock was roughly unchanged, while the S&P 500 fell clearly.
The latest close sits well above its one-year low, though below its one-year high from late August.
+0.89% market −0.48% Norfolk Southern rose, moving against a falling S&P 500. Read →
Norfolk Southern rose, moving against a falling S&P 500.
Trading ran about normal for the stock, and the move was not extreme.
Company news from that day is the likely driver: Norfolk Southern and Schneider National agreed to expand eastern U.S. intermodal rail service, which likely lifted sentiment.
Over the last five trading days the stock rose sharply, far more than its sector.
The next earnings report is Thursday 28 January 2027.
+3.83% market −0.56% Norfolk Southern rose sharply over the week, a big move for the stock and against a slightly weaker S&P 500. Read →
Norfolk Southern rose sharply over the week, a big move for the stock and against a slightly weaker S&P 500.
The rise likely reflects the Schneider intermodal partnership, which expands its eastern U.S. rail reach, and a strong recent quarterly earnings beat.
Its sector ETF, a fund tracking industrial stocks, also rose clearly, so the stock moved more than its peers.
+1.21% market −0.38% Norfolk Southern rose, against a slightly falling market. Read →
Norfolk Southern rose, against a slightly falling market.
Schneider and Norfolk Southern announced an eastern U.S. intermodal partnership after the close, so it is not the cause of that session.
Over the last five trading days the stock rose slightly, moving more than the S&P 500 but less than the Industrials sector.
Trading volume was well below its usual level.
The rise in the session likely reflects broader sector strength, since the Industrials ETF also rose clearly.
+1.72% market +0.56% Norfolk Southern rose, moving well ahead of the market. Read →
Norfolk Southern rose, moving well ahead of the market.
Over the last five trading days the stock rose sharply while the S&P 500 was roughly flat and its sector rose slightly, so it outpaced both.
The move was big for Norfolk Southern, roughly twice a normal five-day stretch, and similar moves happened about eight times in the past year.
Last session no company news clearly explains the rise; a Farm groups debate over the proposed Union Pacific merger and a Union Pacific earnings beat from last week are background, and the merger may keep drawing attention.
−2.44% market −0.52% Norfolk Southern fell very sharply, on a train derailment and no clear market cause. Read →
Norfolk Southern fell very sharply, on a train derailment and no clear market cause.
The stock fell much more than the S&P 500 and its Industrials sector, which both fell clearly over the same day.
The most likely reason is the derailment of 11 train cars near Altoona, which Norfolk Southern reported in the last session, plus a Chattanooga railyard derailment reported after the close.
Analysts raised their price targets, the share prices they see as fair, that same day, which points away from a fundamental cause.
The move was about four times a normal daily swing and only happened about 12 times in the past year.
+0.94% market −0.43% Norfolk Southern rose slightly over the last five trading days, while the S&P 500 fell slightly, so it moved against the market. Read →
Norfolk Southern rose slightly over the last five trading days, while the S&P 500 fell slightly, so it moved against the market.
Its sector, Industrials, fell clearly, so the stock also went against its group.
The main driver was its third-quarter results, which beat expectations and showed record revenue despite higher fuel costs.
Analysts reacted: JP Morgan raised its price target, the fair value it sees for the shares, to $323, and RBC raised its target to $350 while keeping a sector perform rating, meaning neutral.
+3.09% market −1.18% Norfolk Southern rose very sharply, with heavy trading, on record quarterly revenue and an earnings beat. Read →
Norfolk Southern rose very sharply, with heavy trading, on record quarterly revenue and an earnings beat.
Norfolk Southern is a US railroad company listed on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange).
Over the same session the S&P 500 fell sharply and the Industrials sector ETF fell clearly, so the stock moved strongly against both.
Its Q3 results beat expectations, with record revenue, though higher fuel costs and merger expenses weighed on margins (profit as a share of sales).
The stock is still below its highest close of the past year, reached in late August, and well above its lowest from late last year.
Learn more · Why does a stock fall on the ex-dividend date? · Why do stocks go up and down?