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Why Super Micro Computer stock moves

Super Micro Computer rose, moving well beyond the market.

Written after the close on ·

Updated 02:00 with news that came after the close

Why today

16,437 news analyzed today

Super Micro Computer rose, moving well beyond the market.

Earnings beat expectations and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook.

Its shares had fallen steeply in recent days, so this was a rebound.

The S&P 500 rose only slightly over the same session, and the technology sector rose clearly.

Over the last five trading days the stock fell clearly, moving more than both the market and its sector.

Today's move of +6.20% was 2.0 times a normal day's 3.1%. S&P 500 moved +0.31% on the same day.

Super Micro Computer +6.20%S&P 500 +0.31%Much stronger than the market

Earlier days →

See the chart in ChartCompass, with every move explained →

What analysts expect, and how often they have been right

Analysts’ estimates for Super Micro Computer.

Super Micro Computer earned more than expected in 5 out of 8 reports.

Not in the chart because no estimate and result are available: 1 of the 9 reports in this period, the latest on August 11, 2026.

For comparison, about 82% of reports from US companies beat the estimate in the last three years.

The share moved in the same direction as the earnings surprise in 6 out of 8 reports with a measured move, against about 55% of reports from US companies.

Ratings

Now
Buy 4Hold 11Sell 3
3 months ago
Buy 5Hold 11Sell 3

A rating is the analyst’s own opinion about the share. On US shares since 2013, the price a year later was higher about as often when most analysts said buy as when few did.

Price targets

Latest price $28.76

Price targets
Low 15.00Average 43.40High 65.00

The average target is $43.40, +51% relative to the latest price of $28.76. The range is $15.00–$65.00. A target is the analyst’s estimate of a future share price. 15 analysts gave a target. On US shares, a year after earlier targets this far above the price were set, the price stood at or above about 2 in 10 of them.

Earnings against expectations, and the share’s reaction

Earnings against expectations, and the share’s reaction0.10.61.11.62.12024-08-06: 0.63; Expected EPS: 0.816/8’24−20.1%2025-02-25: 0.60; Expected EPS: 0.5925/2’25+12.2%2025-05-06: 0.31; Expected EPS: 0.306/5’25−1.4%2025-08-05: 0.41; Expected EPS: 0.445/8’25−18.3%2025-11-04: 0.35; Expected EPS: 0.394/11’25−11.3%2026-02-03: 0.69; Expected EPS: 0.493/2’26+13.8%2026-05-05: 0.84; Expected EPS: 0.625/5’26+24.5%2026-11-03: 1.81; Expected EPS: 1.233/11’26−5.7%Next reported quarter: expected earnings per share of 1.72.→02/02

Expected EPSAbove estimateBelow estimateAs expected$

Percentages below show the share’s report-day move; labels are report dates.

Next reported quarter: expected earnings per share of $1.72 (February 2). For the current fiscal year, expected earnings per share changed from $3.35 three months ago to $6.34 now. 2027 estimate: $6.34. 2028 estimate: $6.76.

Has the share price followed the business?

Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 2 out of 3 years. Across US companies, that happens in about 65% of years. In 2026, the price changed −40% and earnings per share +94%.

Revenue, profit and market cap

Revenue, profit and market cap ($B)03263952023: 7.122023: 0.6420232024: 14.992024: 1.1520242025: 21.972025: 1.0520252026: 39.062026: 2.202026Now2027: 76.9320272028: 85.9820282023: 13.19132024: 48.18482025: 29.12292026: 19.2719Now: 18.9619

RevenueProfitMarket capHatched bars: analysts’ estimates.$B

Market cap is 0.5 times 2026 revenue, against 1.9 in 2023. Profit in 2026: $2.2B.

Assets, liabilities and market cap

Assets, liabilities and market cap ($B)01835532023: 3.672023: 1.7020232024: 9.832024: 4.4120242025: 14.022025: 7.7220252026: 29.952026: 15.472026Now2023: 13.19132024: 48.18482025: 29.12292026: 19.2719Now: 18.9619

AssetsLiabilitiesMarket cap$B

Assets minus liabilities leave $14.5B for shareholders. Market cap is 1.3 times that equity.

Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 2 out of 3 years.Market cap (Now): $19.0BRevenue 2026: $39.1B

What the key figures say about Super Micro Computer

The figures connect what Super Micro Computer earns with what investors pay.

The line shows the share price in the same year, on its own scale. Hatched bars: analysts’ estimates.

Earnings per share$4.74
NowEarnings per share2023: 1.14232024: 2.01242025: 1.68252026: 3.26262027: 6.34272028: 6.76282023: 24.922024: 81.932025: 49.012026: 29.33

Profit divided by the number of shares. Each share represents this much of the earnings.

2023–2026: $1.14–$3.26. Peers: IonQ $1.73, HP $2.62, Western Digital $28.43. 2027 estimate: $6.34 ($3.70–$7.08). 2028 estimate: $6.76 ($4.60–$8.57).

Revenue$54.0B
NowRevenue2023: 7,123,482,000.00232024: 14,989,251,000.00242025: 21,972,042,000.00252026: 39,063,072,000.00262027: 76,927,109,530.00272028: 85,981,973,360.00282023: 24.922024: 81.932025: 49.012026: 29.33

What the company sold during the year.

2023–2026: $7.1B–$39.1B. Peers: IonQ $380M, HP $59.2B, Western Digital $14.5B. 2027 estimate: $76.9B ($70.5B–$81.2B). 2028 estimate: $86.0B ($77.5B–$92.2B).

Operating margin7.1%
NowOperating margin2023: 10.68232024: 8.08242025: 5.70252026: 7.09262023: 24.922024: 81.932025: 49.012026: 29.33

The percentage of revenue left after the costs of running the business.

2023–2026: 5.7%–10.7%. Peers: IonQ −408.2%, HP 6.6%, Western Digital 40.7%.

Return on equity32.4%
NowReturn on equity2023: 32.45232024: 21.28242025: 16.64252026: 15.17262023: 24.922024: 81.932025: 49.012026: 29.33

Profit as a percentage of shareholders’ money in the company.

2023–2026: 15.2%–32.5%. Peers: IonQ 6.9%, Western Digital 129.6%.

P/E6.1
NowP/E2023: 21.81232024: 40.78242025: 29.17252026: 9.00262027: 4.54272028: 4.2528

The price investors pay for each unit of annual earnings per share. Not shown for a loss.

2023–2026: 9.0–40.8. Peers: IonQ 18.9, HP 10.9, Western Digital 9.3. 2027 estimate: 4.5. 2028 estimate: 4.3.

Market cap per unit of revenue (P/S)0.35
NowMarket cap per unit of revenue (P/S)2023: 1.85232024: 3.21242025: 1.33252026: 0.49262027: 0.25272028: 0.2228

What investors pay for each unit the company sells.

2023–2026: 0.49–3.21. Peers: IonQ 39.84, HP 0.43, Western Digital 6.82. 2027 estimate: 0.25. 2028 estimate: 0.22.

Net debt / EBITDA0.50
NowNet debt / EBITDA2023: -0.19232024: 0.40242025: -0.29252026: 0.4026

Net debt divided by operating earnings before depreciation and amortisation.

2023–2026: -0.29–0.40. Peers: HP 1.33, Western Digital -0.06.

More key figures
Market cap / equity (P/B)1.60
NowMarket cap / equity (P/B)2023: 6.69232024: 8.89242025: 4.62252026: 1.3326

Market cap divided by shareholders’ equity, what remains after liabilities.

2023–2026: 1.33–8.89. Peers: IonQ 2.67, Western Digital 10.55.

EV / EBIT6.9
2026EV / EBIT2023: 17.04232024: 39.48242025: 22.59252026: 6.8726

Market cap plus net debt, divided by operating earnings. This includes debt.

2023–2026: 6.9–39.5.

Free cash flow per share-$10.58
NowFree cash flow per share2023: 1.18232024: -4.44242025: 2.58252026: -10.61262023: 24.922024: 81.932025: 49.012026: 29.33

Cash left after investments, divided by the number of shares.

2023–2026: -$10.61–$2.58. Peers: IonQ -$1.04, HP $4.30, Western Digital $11.46.

Equity ratio48.4%
2026Equity ratio2023: 53.66232024: 55.13242025: 44.95252026: 48.3526

The percentage of assets financed by shareholders’ equity.

2023–2026: 45.0%–55.1%.

What followed similar falls?

Including reinvested dividends, Super Micro Computer fell 12.7% over the latest five trading days. Since November 7, 2016, falls at least this large were followed by a higher value 21 trading days later in 24 out of 39 non-overlapping periods. The median was +5.5%, against +1.3% for an ordinary 21-day period, which ended higher 54 times in 100.

Such a fall has not said much about the next month.

+5.5% · 24/39

What to watch next, and why

The earnings report shows how Super Micro Computer's revenue and profit have changed.

  • Earnings report

    The earnings report shows how Super Micro Computer's revenue and profit have changed.

    Add to calendar

Earnings report

Next report: · Add to calendar · Google Calendar

Report day13.8%

Normal day3.1%

On its last 15 report days Super Micro Computer usually moved about 13.8%. On a normal day it moves 3.1%.

−5.70% Why? +19.02% +24.54% +13.78%

$10,000 in Super Micro Computer bought on November 7, 2016 is worth $126,000 today, with dividends reinvested.

The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.

What would $10,000 in Super Micro Computer be worth today? →

What would $10,000 in Super Micro Computer be worth today?

$126,000

with dividends reinvested, bought on November 7, 2016. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.

At worst it was worth $5,100 (November 8, 2018).

The five biggest days of the journey

· −41.1% · the whole market fell 0.8% the same day

· +35.9% · the whole market rose 1.2% the same day

· −33.3% · the whole market fell 1.5% the same day

· +32.9% · the whole market rose 2.1% the same day

· −32.7% · the whole market fell 0.3% the same day

Earlier days

  • −12.72% market −2.70% Super Micro Computer fell clearly over the week, moving more than both the S&P 500 and its sector. Read →

    Super Micro Computer fell clearly over the week, moving more than both the S&P 500 and its sector.

    The move was big for this stock, roughly twice a normal five-day stretch.

    Its latest session rebounded sharply, partly on AI server stocks recovering from the post-midterm sell-off.

    Quarterly results beat expectations and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $72-82 billion, though analysts still worry about margins.

  • −8.51% market −4.41% Super Micro Computer fell, about 10%, with heavy trading. Read →

    Super Micro Computer fell, about 10%, with heavy trading.

    The S&P 500 also fell sharply, so the stock moved more than the market, and it moved in line with its tech sector.

    Shares fell after the company unveiled a new AI storage solution with IBM and NVIDIA, which likely added to selling pressure.

    Over the last five trading days, the stock fell sharply and this was a very big move for it.

  • −5.70% market +1.65% Super Micro Computer fell, while the S&P 500 rose sharply. Read →

    Super Micro Computer fell, while the S&P 500 rose sharply.

    The earnings report came out after the close of the prior session, showing record revenue and beating expectations.

    Trading was heavy, and investors focused on thin profit margins and the share of sales from one large customer.

    Over the last five trading days the stock fell sharply, a much bigger drop than the market's slight fall.

    The stock was well above its lowest close of the past year but far below its highest.

  • +3.12% market +0.30% Super Micro Computer rose after new AI server news. Read →

    Super Micro Computer rose after new AI server news.

    Over the last five trading days the stock fell clearly, moving more than the S&P 500 and its sector, a big move for this stock.

    The company reported quarterly results after the close, which beat expectations, so that news comes after the session.

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