Why European natural gas (Dutch TTF) moves
European natural gas fell, moving apart from oil.
Written after the close on ·
Why today
16,304 news analyzed todayEuropean natural gas fell, moving apart from oil.
The benchmark front-month contract, the nearest delivery month, shed about 3.5% on the day.
European natural gas (Dutch TTF) fell clearly in the last session, moving more than Brent crude oil.
Over the last five trading days it fell sharply, and the S&P 500 also fell sharply.
European natural gas (Dutch TTF) has moved more than 3% 109 times in the past year; on a normal day it moves 3.0%.
European natural gas (Dutch TTF) −4.08%
What followed similar falls?
Including reinvested dividends, European natural gas (Dutch TTF) fell 17.1% over the latest five trading days. Since October 23, 2017, falls at least this large were followed by a higher value 21 trading days later in 10 out of 21 non-overlapping periods. The median was −0.3%, against +0.7% for an ordinary 21-day period, which ended higher 51 times in 100.
Such a fall has not said much about the next month.
−0.3% · 10/21
10,000 EUR in European natural gas (Dutch TTF) bought on October 23, 2017 is worth 47,300 EUR today, with dividends reinvested.
The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become 33,000 EUR.
What would 10,000 EUR in European natural gas (Dutch TTF) be worth today? →
What would 10,000 EUR in European natural gas (Dutch TTF) be worth today?
47,300 EUR
with dividends reinvested, bought on October 23, 2017. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become 33,000 EUR.
At worst it was worth 1,940 EUR (May 28, 2020).
The five biggest days of the journey
· +51.1% · the whole market rose 1.5% the same day
· +45.0%
· −39.8%
· +39.3% · the whole market was unchanged the same day
· +37.3% · the whole market rose 0.5% the same day
Earlier days
+5.69% European natural gas rose sharply. Read →
European natural gas rose sharply.
Brent crude oil also rose clearly that day, so gas moved more than oil.
No company news explains the move.
The most likely driver is the wider market mood around Iran diplomacy and Strait of Hormuz supply concerns.
Over the last five trading days the price fell clearly, a big move for this asset.
−1.48% market +0.30% European natural gas fell, moving against the S&P 500, which rose slightly. Read →
European natural gas fell, moving against the S&P 500, which rose slightly.
Brent crude oil also fell slightly, so the move was in line with oil.
The drop was an ordinary-sized move for this contract, with trading volume about twice its usual level.
The news from the last session does not name a cause for European natural gas itself.
Commerzbank said Iran tensions kept the Dutch benchmark near EUR 100, which is the price backdrop for the day.
+10.75% market −0.56% European natural gas, a commodity future traded on NYMEX, rose clearly over the week. Read →
European natural gas, a commodity future traded on NYMEX, rose clearly over the week.
Over the same days the S&P 500 fell slightly, so gas moved against the market, while Brent crude oil was roughly unchanged.
This was a big move, about twice a normal five-day stretch for this asset.
Moves at least this big happened about 12 times in the past year.
−3.19% market −0.38% European natural gas fell clearly. Read →
European natural gas fell clearly.
Over the same session the S&P 500 fell only slightly, so the gas benchmark moved more than the broader market.
Over the last five trading days, European natural gas (Dutch TTF) rose clearly, a big move for this instrument, roughly twice its usual five-day swing.
Trading volume was well below its usual level, so the move may have happened on thin trade and could be sensitive to small orders.