Why RBOB Gasoline Futures moves
RBOB Gasoline Futures, traded on NYMEX, was roughly flat.
Written after the close on ·
Why today
16,307 news analyzed todayRBOB Gasoline Futures, traded on NYMEX, was roughly flat.
Over the last five trading days it fell very sharply, more than the S&P 500, which also fell sharply.
Such a move was about five times a normal five-day stretch and happened about three times in the past year.
Likely drivers include soaring freight rates and a wider discount on heavy crude, which favor US refiners, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries.
Today's move of +0.16% was 0.1 times a normal day's 1.5%. S&P 500 moved +0.31% on the same day.
RBOB Gasoline Futures +0.16%S&P 500 +0.31%In step with the market
What followed similar falls?
Including reinvested dividends, RBOB Gasoline Futures fell 16.2% over the latest five trading days. Since November 7, 2016, falls at least this large were followed by a higher value 21 trading days later in 4 out of 8 non-overlapping periods. The median was +2.2%, against +1.0% for an ordinary 21-day period, which ended higher 55 times in 100.
Such a fall has not said much about the next month.
+2.2% · 4/8
$10,000 in RBOB Gasoline Futures bought on November 7, 2016 is worth $20,300 today, with dividends reinvested.
The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
What would $10,000 in RBOB Gasoline Futures be worth today? →
What would $10,000 in RBOB Gasoline Futures be worth today?
$20,300
with dividends reinvested, bought on November 7, 2016. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
At worst it was worth $3,000 (March 23, 2020).
The five biggest days of the journey
· −32.0% · the whole market fell 2.9% the same day
· +25.1% · the whole market rose 2.3% the same day
· −23.6% · the whole market fell 3.1% the same day
· −23.3% · the whole market fell 12.0% the same day
· +23.2% · the whole market rose 1.2% the same day
Earlier days
−16.16% market −2.70% RBOB Gasoline Futures, a contract for US gasoline traded on NYMEX, fell very sharply over the week, more than the broader market. Read →
RBOB Gasoline Futures, a contract for US gasoline traded on NYMEX, fell very sharply over the week, more than the broader market.
The move was very big for this asset, roughly four times a normal five-day stretch, and similar moves happened only about three times in the past year.
Company news was not the driver here; the news this week centred on refining margins, freight rates and crude oil discounts, which likely weighed on fuel prices.
Refiners gained from wider crude discounts, but that did not lift gasoline futures.
+1.59% market −4.41% RBOB Gasoline Futures rose slightly. Read →
RBOB Gasoline Futures rose slightly.
RBOB Gasoline Futures, a NYMEX contract for US gasoline, rose, against a sharp fall in the S&P 500.
Over the last five trading days, the contract fell sharply, a much bigger drop than the market's, and that move was unusually large for it.
The last session's rise was an ordinary-sized move, and trading volume was well below its usual level, so the gain looks modest and thin.
Most news from that session concerned refiners and oil companies, such as strong refining margins at Valero and Par Pacific, and CVR Energy's deal to buy two Marathon refineries.