Why Moderna stock moves
Moderna rose, moving more than the market on its quarterly report.
Written after the close on ·
Updated 02:00 with news that came after the close
Why today
16,437 news analyzed todayModerna rose, moving more than the market on its quarterly report.
The move was large for Moderna, while the S&P 500 rose slightly in the last session.
The main driver was the third-quarter report, which showed revenue up 29% and a profit for the quarter.
The company also raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% to 25%, above its earlier forecast of up to 10%.
Over the last five trading days, Moderna rose sharply, while the healthcare sector was roughly flat.
Today's move of +5.27% was 1.4 times a normal day's 3.8%. S&P 500 moved +0.31% on the same day.
Moderna +5.27%S&P 500 +0.31%Much stronger than the market
What analysts expect, and how often they have been right
Analysts’ estimates for Moderna.
Moderna earned more than expected in 7 out of 8 reports.
For comparison, about 82% of reports from US companies beat the estimate in the last three years.
The share moved in the same direction as the earnings surprise in 3 out of 8 reports with a measured move, against about 55% of reports from US companies.
Ratings
Price targets
Latest price $254.19
Earnings against expectations, and the share’s reaction
Expected EPSAbove estimateBelow estimateAs expected$
Next reported quarter: expected earnings per share of -$3.08 (February 12). For the current fiscal year, expected earnings per share changed from -$8.58 three months ago to -$8.73 now. 2026 estimate: -$8.73. 2027 estimate: -$4.81.
Has the share price followed the business?
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 1 out of 3 years. Across US companies, that happens in about 65% of years. In 2025, the price changed −29% and earnings per share went from -$9.28 to -$7.26.
Revenue, profit and market cap
RevenueProfitMarket capHatched bars: analysts’ estimates.$B
Assets, liabilities and market cap
AssetsLiabilitiesMarket cap$B
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 1 out of 3 years.Market cap (Now): $102.9BRevenue 2025: $1.9B
What the key figures say about Moderna
The figures connect what Moderna earns with what investors pay.
The line shows the share price in the same year, on its own scale. Hatched bars: analysts’ estimates.
Profit divided by the number of shares. Each share represents this much of the earnings.
2022–2025: -$12.33–$20.12. Peers: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals $45.24, Vertex Pharmaceuticals $15.54, Genmab 75.25 DKK. 2026 estimate: -$8.73 (-$9.06–-$8.41). 2027 estimate: -$4.81 (-$7.11–-$2.49).
What the company sold during the year.
2022–2025: $1.9B–$18.9B. Peers: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals $16.9B, Vertex Pharmaceuticals $13.0B, Genmab $4.3B. 2026 estimate: $2.4B ($2.3B–$2.5B). 2027 estimate: $2.6B ($2.0B–$3.3B).
The percentage of revenue left after the costs of running the business.
2022–2025: −159.9%–49.9%. Peers: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 30.4%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals 33.1%, Genmab 30.6%.
Profit as a percentage of shareholders’ money in the company.
2022–2025: −34.0%–43.7%. Peers: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 14.9%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals 20.8%, Genmab 12.1%.
What investors pay for each unit the company sells.
2022–2025: 3.66–6.05. Peers: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 5.54, Vertex Pharmaceuticals 10.71. 2026 estimate: 43.35. 2027 estimate: 40.00.
More key figures
Market cap divided by shareholders’ equity, what remains after liabilities.
2022–2025: 1.34–3.62. Peers: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 2.71, Vertex Pharmaceuticals 6.63.
Cash left after investments, divided by the number of shares.
2022–2025: -$10.51–$11.90. Peers: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals $35.07, Vertex Pharmaceuticals $12.63, Genmab $13.71.
The percentage of assets financed by shareholders’ equity.
2022–2025: 70.1%–77.1%.
What to watch next, and why
The earnings report shows how Moderna's revenue and profit have changed.
- Earnings report
The earnings report shows how Moderna's revenue and profit have changed.
Add to calendar
Earnings report
Next report: · Add to calendar · Google Calendar
On its last 15 report days Moderna usually moved about 5.3%. On a normal day it moves 3.8%.
+5.27% Why? −5.35% −1.24% +5.29%
$10,000 in Moderna bought on December 7, 2018 is worth $137,000 today, with dividends reinvested.
The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $31,500.
What would $10,000 in Moderna be worth today? →
What would $10,000 in Moderna be worth today?
$137,000
with dividends reinvested, bought on December 7, 2018. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $31,500.
At worst it was worth $6,590 (August 5, 2019).
The five biggest days of the journey
· +177.0% · the whole market rose 0.2% the same day
· +27.8% · the whole market fell 3.0% the same day
· +24.4% · the whole market fell 12.0% the same day
· −23.5% · the whole market fell 0.9% the same day
· +22.7% · the whole market fell 0.4% the same day · report day
Earlier days
+14.64% market −2.70% Moderna rose sharply over the week, moving against a falling S&P 500. Read →
Moderna rose sharply over the week, moving against a falling S&P 500.
The main driver was its third-quarter results on Friday, 6 November, which beat expectations.
Revenue rose 29%, and the company raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% to 25%.
Positive Phase 3 data for its cancer vaccine intismeran and U.S. approval of its flu vaccine mFLUSIVA likely added support.
−6.55% market −4.41% Moderna fell, moving in line with a weak market. Read →
Moderna fell, moving in line with a weak market.
Over the last five trading days it rose clearly, while the S&P 500 fell very sharply, so it moved against the market.
+13.11% market +1.65% Moderna rose on Wednesday on its myeloma data and Ebola vaccine news. Read →
Moderna rose on Wednesday on its myeloma data and Ebola vaccine news.
The stock moved against a slightly weaker S&P 500, and it moved more than its healthcare sector.
Its rally over the last five trading days was very large, roughly three times its normal weekly swing.
The most likely driver was the early multiple myeloma data for mRNA-2808, which showed four confirmed responses among 11 heavily pretreated patients.
Its Ebola vaccine advancing to a Phase 2/3 trial, a late-stage study, likely added support.
Learn more · Why do stocks move on earnings day? · Why do stocks go up and down?