Why Heating Oil Futures moves
Heating Oil Futures fell, roughly flat while the market rose slightly.
Written after the close on ·
Why today
16,413 news analyzed todayHeating Oil Futures fell, roughly flat while the market rose slightly.
Over the last five trading days it fell clearly, moving more than the S&P 500 over the same days.
The last-session move was an ordinary one, within its usual daily range.
Reports of falling Russian diesel sales and easing home heating prices in some regions may also weigh on the market.
Today's move of −0.20% was 0.2 times a normal day's 1.3%. S&P 500 moved +0.31% on the same day.
Heating Oil Futures −0.20%S&P 500 +0.31%A little weaker than the market
What followed similar falls?
Including reinvested dividends, Heating Oil Futures fell 9.6% over the latest five trading days. Since November 7, 2016, falls at least this large were followed by a higher value 21 trading days later in 13 out of 24 non-overlapping periods. The median was +1.5%, against +0.9% for an ordinary 21-day period, which ended higher 54 times in 100.
Such a fall has not said much about the next month.
+1.5% · 13/24
$10,000 in Heating Oil Futures bought on November 7, 2016 is worth $30,100 today, with dividends reinvested.
The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
What would $10,000 in Heating Oil Futures be worth today? →
What would $10,000 in Heating Oil Futures be worth today?
$30,100
with dividends reinvested, bought on November 7, 2016. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
At worst it was worth $4,240 (April 27, 2020).
The five biggest days of the journey
· −21.9% · the whole market rose 2.6% the same day
· −18.1% · the whole market fell 3.1% the same day
· −16.0% · the whole market fell 7.6% the same day
· −14.9% · the whole market rose 2.5% the same day
· −13.7% · the whole market rose 0.5% the same day
Earlier days
−9.34% market −2.70% Heating Oil Futures, traded on NYMEX, fell clearly over the past five trading days, a big move for this contract. Read →
Heating Oil Futures, traded on NYMEX, fell clearly over the past five trading days, a big move for this contract.
The S&P 500 fell sharply over the same days, so heating oil dropped more than the broad market.
Likely drivers include supply concerns and refinery news, such as freight costs rising as crude discounts widen, and reports of falling heating oil prices from a recent high.
Last session the contract was roughly flat, with a smaller-than-usual move.
+3.48% market −4.41% Heating Oil Futures rose on oil market price swings. Read →
Heating Oil Futures rose on oil market price swings.
Over the last five trading days it fell clearly, and the move was big for this contract.
The S&P 500 fell very sharply over the same days, so the futures moved more than the market.
No company news explains the rise, since the reports about heating oil were mostly about household costs and policy.
In the last session the futures moved against a sharp market fall.