Why Alcoa stock moves
Alcoa rose clearly.
Written after the close on ·
Why today
16,437 news analyzed todayAlcoa rose clearly.
Shares climbed while the S&P 500 rose slightly and the basic materials sector fell.
Trimet, a Brazilian aluminium producer, urged a block of the Alcoa-South32 deal, which creates a Brazil duopoly, though that alone does not clearly explain the rise.
South32 kept its June 2027 timeline for buying Alcoa's aluminium assets, and the stock moved without a clear company news driver, so the cause is uncertain.
Over the last five trading days, Alcoa was roughly flat, while the S&P 500 fell sharply and the sector fell clearly.
Today's move of +2.92% was 1.7 times a normal day's 1.7%. S&P 500 moved +0.31% on the same day.
Alcoa +2.92%S&P 500 +0.31%Much stronger than the market
What analysts expect, and how often they have been right
Analysts’ estimates for Alcoa.
Alcoa earned more than expected in 6 out of 8 reports.
For comparison, about 82% of reports from US companies beat the estimate in the last three years.
The share moved in the same direction as the earnings surprise in 5 out of 8 reports with a measured move, against about 55% of reports from US companies.
Ratings
Price targets
Latest price $39.54
Earnings against expectations, and the share’s reaction
Expected EPSAbove estimateBelow estimateAs expected$
Next reported quarter: expected earnings per share of $1.56 (January 21). For the current fiscal year, expected earnings per share changed from $6.50 three months ago to $6.79 now. 2026 estimate: $6.79. 2027 estimate: $5.21.
Has the share price followed the business?
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 3 out of 3 years. Across US companies, that happens in about 65% of years. In 2025, the price changed +41% and earnings per share went from $0.26 to $4.42.
Revenue, profit and market cap
RevenueProfitMarket capHatched bars: analysts’ estimates.$B
Assets, liabilities and market cap
AssetsLiabilitiesMarket cap$B
Price and earnings moved in the same direction: 3 out of 3 years.Market cap (Now): $10.4BRevenue 2025: $12.8B
What the key figures say about Alcoa
The figures connect what Alcoa earns with what investors pay.
The line shows the share price in the same year, on its own scale. Hatched bars: analysts’ estimates.
Profit divided by the number of shares. Each share represents this much of the earnings.
2022–2025: -$3.65–$4.42. Peers: Norsk Hydro 6.59 NOK, Gränges 12.63 SEK, Yara 53.68 NOK. 2026 estimate: $6.79 ($5.90–$7.43). 2027 estimate: $5.21 ($3.01–$7.79).
What the company sold during the year.
2022–2025: $10.6B–$12.8B. Peers: Norsk Hydro 206.2 bn NOK, Gränges 34.6 bn SEK, Yara $16.9B. 2026 estimate: $14.7B ($14.4B–$14.9B). 2027 estimate: $14.9B ($13.1B–$18.5B).
The percentage of revenue left after the costs of running the business.
2022–2025: −2.2%–10.7%. Peers: Norsk Hydro 19.6%, Gränges 5.8%, Yara 11.3%.
Profit as a percentage of shareholders’ money in the company.
2022–2025: −15.3%–18.9%. Peers: Norsk Hydro 12.0%, Gränges 12.4%, Yara 15.9%.
The price investors pay for each unit of annual earnings per share. Not shown for a loss.
2022–2025: 12.0–145.3. Peers: Norsk Hydro 10.4, Gränges 13.3, Yara 7.5. 2026 estimate: 5.8. 2027 estimate: 7.6.
What investors pay for each unit the company sells.
2022–2025: 0.58–1.09. Peers: Norsk Hydro 0.65, Gränges 0.52. 2026 estimate: 0.71. 2027 estimate: 0.70.
Money paid to shareholders per share, summed by calendar year.
2017–2025: $0.00–$0.40.
The ordinary yearly dividend as a percentage of the share price.
2022–2025: 0.8%–1.2%. Peers: Norsk Hydro 4.4%, Gränges 2.0%, Yara 5.5%.
Net debt divided by operating earnings before depreciation and amortisation.
2022–2025: 0.35–6.63. Peers: Norsk Hydro 0.28, Gränges 1.88, Yara 1.02.
More key figures
Market cap divided by shareholders’ equity, what remains after liabilities.
2022–2025: 1.43–2.29. Peers: Norsk Hydro 1.26, Gränges 1.60.
Market cap plus net debt, divided by operating earnings. This includes debt.
2022–2025: 10.6–25.7.
Cash left after investments, divided by the number of shares.
2022–2025: -$2.47–$2.16. Peers: Norsk Hydro 3.40 NOK, Gränges -3.25 SEK, Yara $3.63.
The percentage of assets financed by shareholders’ equity.
2022–2025: 30.0%–37.9%.
The dividend explained
A dividend is money paid to shareholders. Alcoa paid $0.40 per share in the twelve months through November 6, 2026.
On the ex-dividend day, October 27, 2026, Alcoa traded without the right to the $0.10 dividend. The price went from $38.70 to $39.93; including the dividend, the day's change was +3.4%. Entitlement passes from the company to shareholders on the ex-day; payment comes later.
2017: $0.002018: $0.002019: $0.002020: $0.002021: $0.102022: $0.402023: $0.402024: $0.402025: $0.402026 so far: $0.40
What to watch next, and why
The earnings report shows how Alcoa's revenue and profit have changed.
- Earnings report
The earnings report shows how Alcoa's revenue and profit have changed.
Add to calendar
Earnings report
Next report: · Add to calendar · Google Calendar
On its last 15 report days Alcoa usually moved about 3.7%. On a normal day it moves 1.7%.
+2.55% −6.13% −6.80% −1.47%
$10,000 in Alcoa bought on November 7, 2016 is worth $16,700 today, with dividends reinvested.
The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
What would $10,000 in Alcoa be worth today? →
What would $10,000 in Alcoa be worth today?
$16,700
with dividends reinvested, bought on November 7, 2016. The same amount in S&P 500 with dividends would have become $40,400.
At worst it was worth $2,190 (March 20, 2020).
The five biggest days of the journey
· +28.2% · the whole market rose 9.4% the same day
· −21.1% · the whole market fell 7.6% the same day
· −18.4% · the whole market fell 9.5% the same day
· −17.9% · the whole market fell 5.2% the same day
· +17.1% · the whole market rose 3.2% the same day
Earlier days
+0.89% market −2.70% Alcoa was roughly unchanged over the week, moving less than both the S&P 500 and its sector. Read →
Alcoa was roughly unchanged over the week, moving less than both the S&P 500 and its sector.
The market fell sharply while Alcoa held steady, which is a relatively calm week for the stock.
Most of the news was dated Friday 6 November, and it mainly concerned South32's aluminium asset deal with Alcoa, which keeps its June 2027 timeline, plus Trimet's objection that the deal would create a Brazil duopoly.
The next earnings report is due Thursday 21 January 2027.
−5.32% market −4.41% Alcoa fell sharply without company news explaining it. Read →
Alcoa fell sharply without company news explaining it.
The S&P 500 also fell very sharply, so Alcoa moved with the broader market.
Its sector ETF fell very sharply too, so Alcoa moved about as much as its sector.
Over the last five trading days, Alcoa fell slightly while the market fell very sharply.
+2.76% market +1.65% Alcoa rose on record production and its AliGroup deal. Read →
Alcoa rose on record production and its AliGroup deal.
Alcoa rose clearly in the last session, moving more than the market, which rose sharply.
Over the same day the sector rose very sharply, so Alcoa moved in line with it.
Over the last five trading days the stock was roughly unchanged, while the broader market fell slightly.
Record aluminum production and preparation for the AliGroup acquisition were reported in the last session.
+1.81% market −0.48% Alcoa rose on Monday. Read →
Alcoa rose on Monday.
The rise is most likely tied to aluminum prices and sector sentiment, since no company-specific news from the session clearly explains it.
Over the last five trading days, Alcoa rose slightly while the S&P 500 fell clearly, and the Basic Materials sector rose sharply.
Earlier, Vanguard reported a 5.04% stake in Alcoa, which is dated background only.
The next earnings report is due Thursday 21 January 2027.
−1.75% market −1.77% Alcoa fell, in line with a sharp market drop. Read →
Alcoa fell, in line with a sharp market drop.
No company news explains it; the broad market sell-off likely drove the move.
Over the last five trading days, Alcoa rose slightly while the S&P 500 fell slightly, and its sector ETF rose clearly.
Recent company news is mostly routine, such as its latest quarterly results and the AliGroup deal, which was already known.
The next earnings report is due Thursday 21 January 2027.
+3.64% market −0.56% Alcoa, the aluminum producer listed on the NYSE, rose slightly over the week. Read →
Alcoa, the aluminum producer listed on the NYSE, rose slightly over the week.
The market fell slightly, so Alcoa moved against it.
The sector for basic materials rose clearly, so Alcoa moved in line with its industry.
Strong third-quarter results and reaffirmed production forecasts likely supported the shares.
−0.80% market −0.38% Alcoa fell with the market. Read →
Alcoa fell with the market.
Over the same session the S&P 500 also fell slightly, so Alcoa moved more than the market, while its sector ETF rose clearly.
The move was an ordinary one for Alcoa, within its usual daily range.
Over the last five trading days Alcoa rose slightly, moving more than both the S&P 500 and the Basic Materials sector ETF, which rose clearly.
A rating change on Thursday last week, when analysts reshuffled their calls, is dated background only.
Learn more · Why do stocks go up and down?